Despite the general optimism in the lead-up to the conference, the chances of such deal still look to be at long odds. But if you want to play the climate change market, in the absence of our own ETS, there is a way. The UNSW Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets and legal firm Baker & McKenzie have set up a Copenhagen Predictions Market, in which participants using “experimental dollars” (E$s) can bet on a range of outcomes, such as deadlines for legally binding agreements, aggregate reduction targets, and the long term stabilisation target.
You can bet on an outcome of less than 10 per cent, between 10 and 15 per cent, between 15 per cent and 20 per cent, and so on. UNSW expects the price of these shares to vary as new information about negotiating positions becomes available. You can even bet on individual country reduction targets, including for Australia, and the design of REDD mechanisms (reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation) and the future of the CDM (clean development mechanism) market. There are no fees, and no real money at stake, but the three winners in each category will each get a prize.